It's enlightening to rewatch my games. Here are short game summaries:
1. Bid 1-1 [I won], Opponent played Big Minions which don't overwhelm anybody.
2. Bid 1-0, Opponent played Sauron. At site 5, Opponent took a threat instead of keeping a minion alive, while one more minion would have killed me at site 6. Likely I would have stopped and opponent might have been able to seize the lead.
3. Bid 1-1 [Opponent won], Opponent played Raiders. This was the
Raider Bow -
Desert Runner game at site 9. I drew well to win off my opponent double.
4. Bid 1-0, Opponent played Morcs. I could have lost to a built swarm at site 5, but my Raiders were applying pressure and the opponent needed cards. I killed at site 6 with
Haradrim Marksman archery setting off 4 threats.
5. Bid 1-1 [Opponent won], Opponent played Morcs. Opponent made a mistake stopping at site 2, but then doubled 2-4. I got a
city gates stop at site 5, and then forced another stop at site 8. I doubled to 9 for the win.
6. Bid 1-0, Opponent played 78 card Sauron. A forced double through 7 with
Osgiliath Channel might have swarmed me, but
Fourth Level killed a key minion. I could have sacrificed down to 5 companions, though, so this wasn't an opponent mistake.
7. Bid 1-1 [Opponent won], Opponent started Legolas (very good) and played Morcs. Opponent made a mistake stopping at 2, because I would have needed a very good swarm to win off a mulligan and 12 twilight. That let me seize the lead, and a Legolas pump-kill at site 4 let me keep it.
8. Bid 1-1 [Opponent won], Opponent played Raiders. I got a stop at 4 and doubled to 5, losing 2 people. Opponent had a tough decision at 5, because
Haradrim Marksman would have won me the game in archery. I didn't have it. Under optimal play he would have lost 1 of 4 people. He made a small error and would have lost 2. After that stop, we both held at 6 but I won easily.
9. Bid 1-1 [I won], Opponent played Morcs. Opponent played Enquea at site 2 against 5 companions. After that point, I could dump and go. I made a mistake at site 4 to lose a minion, but opponent made a bigger mistake and stopped anyway. Leaving site 6 I had 9 companions, so even with a
Ruined Capitol stop I was winning.
10. Bid 1-0, Opponent played 80 card Raiders. He got a site 4 stop, but so did I.
City Gates stopped me at site 5. He should have doubled because he would have lost no more than 2 people moving to 6, but didn't. Maybe he thought 1 more minion in a swarm would have won, but he was wrong - he needed 2.
Let's see, what did I learn?
- Four times I lost the random roll and went second.
- I had two kills, one from a double move, one on a single. Eight times I survived site 9.
- Opponent Shadows were 4 Morcs, 3 Raiders, 2 Sauron, 1 Big Minions.
- I made one play error (#9) which would have lost the game if the opponent capitalized.
- In at least three games (#5, #7, #9), the opponent made a play mistake that lost the game. There were opponent errors in other games (#2, #8, #10) but I don't think they directly lost the game. Interestingly, my closest game (#3) had no opponent errors that I saw; I just drew well.
To answer your question, there were fewer double moves than I remembered. I built my deck with big 3 vitality minions to get stops at site 4, which I generally did. My opponents needed to double more aggressively - losing 2 people is usually fine against Raiders. I still believe Sauron is a better shadow, with
Orc Savage and more swarm potential.