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NBarden
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 1:38 am
Joined: 28 Dec 2006 Posts: 5468 Location: I don't know...
So, assuming casual play, you decide to play Isengard, a 1/10 chance. You opponent plays one of the cultures using Saruman, primarily Uruk-hai or Isengard. But in order for this scenario to be plausible, there would have to be a non-fighting Saruman. So 2/10 chance (1/5, again, giving the benefit of the doubt) that your opponent is running a deck with a culture with Isengard, 1/10 that he’s actually running Saruman in it.

Now, you mutual opponent is running a wizard. (a 1/6 chance, giving the benefit of the doubt.) Then assuming the wizard survives, we’ll give it a 1/7 chance with that factor. Now, assuming that this happens perfectly at one site, a 1/9 chance. Throw into the mix that at that one site, every minion gets kiled except Saruman. Granting that you and the other shadow player are collaborating on are collaborating on this scheme to take his Saruman into your hand, a 1/2 chance Saruman survives with no other minions. If your not collaborating, the deck he’s running probably runs tanks for him to consider running a Saruman, so that’s a possible 3 minions out at a site. Assuming a 50% chance of the FP winning all the skirmishes, that’s a 1/6 chance of Saruman being the only minion to not lose a skirmish. But, then you have to consider damage to actually kill, or archery to soften the minions up, which is only run in dwarves and elves. So, assuming this wizard is splashed in a dwarf or elf deck...we’ll assume a 1/12 chance, although its more likely 1/18 or 1/24. Then, you pull it off. The chance of this happening is, granting the benefit of the doubt and assuming your fellow shadow player isn’t in on the plot.

1/10 * 1/5 * 1/7 * 1/9 * 1/6 * 1/12 = 1/226,800!

That’s right. A one in 226,800 chance of this being successfully pulled off! Assuming that the conditions are favorable to it being pulled off in your meta, etc. I don’t think you’ll have a problem with this.

However, with collaboration, its only a 1 in 6300 chance. So, you would have to plan this with your fellow shadow player in order to pull it off at a given site. Then it works 1 in 6300 times, assuming typical gameplay.
Last edited by NBarden on Mon Feb 05, 2007 2:46 pm; edited 1 time in totalExclamation-Trade With MeExclamation
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corvus
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 4:42 am
Joined: 13 Oct 2006 Posts: 1696 Location: Roaming, but dangerous!!!
You are either a psycho or just nuts.
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Merrick_Hale
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 9:03 am
Joined: 13 Apr 2006 Posts: 445 Location: Austin, Texas
A lot of assumptions here that aren’t necessarily warranted so the math is a bit sketchy since you would have to also be able to set up the right hands to be able to pull this off and those odds will vary based on deck size. If taking saruman into your hand is the only goal you have, then you will also have to depend on the freeps player not being able to outrun you to 9 while setting this up. So I think that the answer is closer to "Statistically impossible under normal circumstances, statistically improbable under ideal circumstances".
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NBarden
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 2:49 pm
Joined: 28 Dec 2006 Posts: 5468 Location: I don't know...
Oh yeah, that’s right. So, assuming a six card shadow hand and a 60 card deck, thats 6/60 for the other guy, times 6/60 for you, or about 1/100. Add that in and its actually 1 in 22,680,000. I don’t think that there’s been that many LotR games played...

Corvus wrote:

You are either a psycho or just nuts.


Or all of the above. I really like math, especailly statistics...
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sickofpalantirs
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 5:22 pm
Joined: 23 Mar 2006 Posts: 7750 Location: somwhere, over the rainbow way up high. There's a land that I heard of once in a lullaby.
NBarden you are obsessed. anyway, that would be really cool but again nigh impossible.
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NBarden
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 6:05 pm
Joined: 28 Dec 2006 Posts: 5468 Location: I don't know...
sickofpalantirs wrote:
NBarden you are obsessed.


Number Two!

Yeah, I am kinda obsessed, but oh well.
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Cobra
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 8:15 pm
Joined: 12 Jul 2005 Posts: 1202 Location: Austin, TX, USA
corvus wrote:
To tell you the truth, i would rule it completely differently. With the same logic that i cannot discard a fellow shadow player’s corsair war galley to add tokens, i have no right to activate a text on a fellow shadow player’s artifact, whoever its bearer might be.


That’s correct, but we were (or I was, anyway) talking about a different situation. If the staff belongs to you, and the Saruman belongs to another Shadow player, you can take that Saruman into your hand. (Of course, you can’t play your staff on your opponent’s Saruman, which means it would need to be played on an opposing Gandalf, or on a "deceived" Wizard.)

You can’t really make up probability statistics out of nowhere and then do math with them. Laughing Your very first assumption, that you have a 10% chance of choosing to play Isengard, seems very strange to me -- you wouldn’t care about the uses of Saruman’s Staff in the first place if you weren’t playing Isengard already!

Suffice it to say that 1) this situation is very unlikely, and 2) it still deserves a ruling when someone asks about it. Wink
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ingold55
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 11:03 pm
Joined: 10 Oct 2005 Posts: 1199 Location: Out on the front line
NBarden wrote:
So, assuming casual play, you decide to play Isengard, a 1/10 chance. You opponent plays one of the cultures using Saruman, primarily Uruk-hai or Isengard. But in order for this scenario to be plausible, there would have to be a non-fighting Saruman. So 2/10 chance (1/5, again, giving the benefit of the doubt) that your opponent is running a deck with a culture with Isengard, 1/10 that he’s actually running Saruman in it.

Now, you mutual opponent is running a wizard. (a 1/6 chance, giving the benefit of the doubt.) Then assuming the wizard survives, we’ll give it a 1/7 chance with that factor. Now, assuming that this happens perfectly at one site, a 1/9 chance. Throw into the mix that at that one site, every minion gets kiled except Saruman. Granting that you and the other shadow player are collaborating on are collaborating on this scheme to take his Saruman into your hand, a 1/2 chance Saruman survives with no other minions. If your not collaborating, the deck he’s running probably runs tanks for him to consider running a Saruman, so that’s a possible 3 minions out at a site. Assuming a 50% chance of the FP winning all the skirmishes, that’s a 1/6 chance of Saruman being the only minion to not lose a skirmish. But, then you have to consider damage to actually kill, or archery to soften the minions up, which is only run in dwarves and elves. So, assuming this wizard is splashed in a dwarf or elf deck...we’ll assume a 1/12 chance, although its more likely 1/18 or 1/24. Then, you pull it off. The chance of this happening is, granting the benefit of the doubt and assuming your fellow shadow player isn’t in on the plot.

1/10 * 1/5 * 1/7 * 1/9 * 1/6 * 1/12 = 1/226,800!

That’s right. A one in 226,800 chance of this being successfully pulled off! Assuming that the conditions are favorable to it being pulled off in your meta, etc. I don’t think you’ll have a problem with this.

However, with collaboration, its only a 1 in 6300 chance. So, you would have to plan this with your fellow shadow player in order to pull it off at a given site. Then it works 1 in 6300 times, assuming typical gameplay.





Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

you just blew hundreds of my brain cells. d'oh! d'oh! d'oh!

(that kind of math never was my strong point.)
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NBarden
Posted: Mon Feb 05, 2007 11:07 pm
Joined: 28 Dec 2006 Posts: 5468 Location: I don't know...
Cobra wrote:
Your very first assumption, that you have a 10% chance of choosing to play Isengard, seems very strange to me -- you wouldn’t care about the uses of Saruman’s Staff in the first place if you weren’t playing Isengard already!


Actually, there are ten shadow cultures, so giving them an equal chance, 1/10 sounds logical...under completely unintentional circumstances.
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corvus
Posted: Tue Feb 06, 2007 11:16 am
Joined: 13 Oct 2006 Posts: 1696 Location: Roaming, but dangerous!!!
Yeah, sorry Cobra, i got it now.
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