Yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about
PATHS...you almost never see it in Expanded, though it would still be quite useful to use.
I'm so meticulous about decks, that if I'm making a "bomb" deck, I feel like I
have to account for variances, since its an all or nothing kind of deck. If you can't get it to go off the right way you just need to try and run. I'm more partial to beatdown types, since you have more wiggle room.
That being said, I have come up with a bomb deck. It's probably the only one I'm satisfied with, even though it still won't ever have a guaranteed win.
When you are making a swarm deck in expanded, you can expect to run into these obstacles:
1. Site manipulation during maneuver phase to
Caras Galadhon (this is probably the most common problem you will have, and any competitive deck will hold a
Traveled Leader in hand if they smell even a hint of swarm).
2. Skirmish special abilities (you know that ring that can make Frodo strength +27 or more without corrupting himself? That one can be a real bummer...but its probably the most commonly used ring in Expanded.
Cavern Entrance is sometimes a must...but then you are also subject to site manipulation).
3. Skirmish events (probably not quite as common, but like we mentioned,
PATHS can shut you down).
4. Archery wounding/maneuver discarding (I see you got your ships lined up, which is good, heavy archery decks aren't as common, but they CAN prepare for a storm if they see one coming).
The deck I made to account for all of these is my Sandyman bomb that uses
Fool of a Took! spotting
Ted Sandyman to draw every card from your deck into your hand. I use
Gimli, DoE and
Gloin, Son of Groin [thanks to sgtdraino for the suggestion on this guy] to bury Moria cards, Delvings to draw the cards I need to set off the bomb, while using Goblin sneaks to do the same. Once I've drawn the whole hand,
Host of Moria is there to pull any card you need that you might have lost to discarding.
To win you need:
1 Nelya to ensure
Cavern Entrance (usually don't need to even play him)
1 Balrog,
Demon of Might1
Whip of Many Thongs, Weapon of Flame and Shadowsometimes 1 Power in Terror (if they are playing heavy choke, usually don't need it but pulled it once with
Host of Moria)
This way they can't use skirmish special abilities, they can't change sites or use archery (both phases are skipped), and any useful skirmish events that would save them are discarded from their hand.
My major weakness is
Gandalf, Wise Guide, since you don't usually see White Arrows or other FP discarding techniques.
For your deck, I would really recommend adding 1 copy of Balrog,
Demon of Might in case they flood the twilight pool at any given turn (it often happens), which would let you get both the Balrog AND the tentacles out.
Nasty!