I've now played 100 games with this and have gone 95-5 (which includes 10-0 in an All Cards FOTR league and 5-0 in that league with a similar pre-Elf Lords deck, enabling me to win that league), so I think I may retire it and post it here. Losses were to a variety of different Shadows.
Ring-bearer:
Frodo, Old Bilbo's HeirRing:
The One Ring, Isildur's BaneAdventure deck:
Hobbiton Party FieldBreeland ForestFrodo's BedroomMithril MineThe Bridge of Khazad-dumDimrill DaleAnduin WilderlandShores of Nen HithoelSummit of Amon HenFree Peoples (43):Starting:
1x
Boromir, Defender of Minas Tirith1x
Merry, Friend to Sam4x
Aragorn, Heir to the White City1x
Pippin, Friend to Frodo1x
Sam, Son of Hamfast1x
Bilbo, Well-spoken Gentlehobbit1x
Bounder1x
Filibert Bolger, Wily Rascal1x
Practically Everyone Was Invited1x
Aragorn's Bow1x
Armor1x
Athelas2x
Blade of Gondor2x
Flaming Brand2x
Ranger's Sword1x
Sting1x
Frying Pan3x
Red Book of Westmarch4x
Gondor Bowmen3x
Consorting With Wizards1x
The Saga of Elendil1x
O Elbereth! Gilthoniel!3x
Stone Trolls1x
There and Back Again3x
No Stranger to the Shadows1x
A Talent for Not Being SeenShadow(43):4x
Goblin Runner4x
Goblin Scavengers4x
Moria Scout1x
Goblin Scrabbler1x
Goblin Warrior1x
Goblin Sneak1x
Guard Commander1x
Troll's Keyward1x
Goblin Flankers2x
Cave Troll of Moria, Scourge of the Black Pit1x
The Balrog, Flame of Udun1x
Ulaire Enquea, Lieutenant of Morgul2x
Ulaire Nertea, Messenger of Dol Guldur4x
Host of Thousands4x
Goblin Scimitar1x
Moria Axe4x
Goblin Armory2x
Goblin Swarms1x
Relics of Moria3x
They Are ComingStrategyFree Peoples:Bid 3 to go first. You should mulligan a substantial fraction of hands that don't include at least one of Aragorn or
Red Book of Westmarch. Bilbo draws lots of cards with the book (there are 16 tales in total), remove conditions and removes twilight. No Shadow side is particularly bad for you, so you could be aiming to quickly move to site 9 against anything.
Some specific card choices:
Stone Trolls: It's a tale, so against anything it can draw a card and discard a condition with Bilbo. Against Uruks, it makes your companions incredibly tough to beat. I am wavering about the third copy though (initially had two), as its twilight cost of 2 hurts the choke.
Pippin, Friend to Frodo: In here specifically to mitigate the effects of
Saruman's Power (which is otherwise the worst card in the game for you). Only half your conditions are Shire Tales, but
Stone Trolls in particular is very important to prevent from being discarded. Other than that, he can serve as a wound/exert soak and chump blocker.
Practically Everyone was Invited: There are only 4 non-starting hobbits, so it runs the risk of being dead or not very useful, but the primary purpose is to give a virtual second copy of Pippin (for Uruks) or Sam (for corruption).
Single copy of Bilbo: It may seem risky given the reliance on Bilbo if you were to get outbid. I had three initially but kept cutting them, because I've found that a bid of 3 allows you to go first the overwhelming majority of the time, and those times the extra copies are quite a lot less valuable than an average card.
Single
Athelas: May seem risky to not have more when Bilbo can't remove conditions attached to companions, but I've found the heal to not be particularly useful, and Bilbo can get rid of
Black Breath/Blade Tip if they survive to the next fellowship phase.
Shadow:Fairly typical Moria swarm. If there is an original twist, it's that Runners, Scouts and Scavengers are the best orcs and are going to be your target for retrieving a majority of the time. Every other orc is a singleton, in order to ensure your discard pile will have a number of options for niche-use orcs.
The single
Goblin Sneak with no Underdeeps of Moria is perhaps the most unusual card choice. It's in there because in the event your opponent gets to site 9, you'll often run out of cards, so it can mean an extra orc or two. However, this is a pretty uncommon event, so most of the time it's not worth playing more than once.