Sealed product value, statistically speaking

[Air Power]

I was curious about the expected value of opening a booster box, so I resorted to math.

Methodology:
-I assume that a rare is worth its cost purchased as a single.  For simplicity, I've used one store as the general reference and consulted other sellers to find cards that the first store did not have in stock.
-Given the availability of common/uncommon lots for roughly the cost of shipping, I've ignored commons/uncommons entirely.
-Each box contains 36 rares; assuming perfectly random distribution, the expected value of the rares will be 36*the average value of the rares in the set.
-For sets 1-8 and 10, I ignored foils because I don't have good data on the c/uc/r split and the values are so variable (e.g. Sam SoH is a common but the foil costs more than most rare foils from the same set).
-For set 9, I assume 10 R+ and ignore R (based on complete sets of 9Rs selling for $5).  I also ignore the potential of rares in the rest of the pack b/c I don't know the expected distribution.
-for set 11, I assume 6 rf cards and average the value of rf like I do for rares.
-for sets 12 & 13, I assume 5 rf and 1 O card and use average values like I do for rares.

[Air Power]

Results:
All values are USD

FotR: $52.24
MoM: $31.46
RotEL: $39.53
TT: $50.51
HD:34.54
EoF: $28.83
RotK: $48.78
SoG: $66.26
MD: $50.24

Ref: $49.86

Sh: $61.01 (excluding rf: $47.17)
BR: $85.58 (excluding rf and O: $55.88)
Bl: $165.48 (excluding rf and O: $106.16)

[Air Power]

Commentary on results:
I'm surprised that it is evidently cheaper to buy sealed product for most sets than it is to but the rares as singles.  Granted, the singles value is more expensive than a thorough search of forum posts, ebay, and comparison shopping would probably reveal, but when you consider the added cost of shipping if you buy from multiple sources, I don't think I'm too far off.
This data applies mainly for collectors (on the assumption that they want all of the cards).  If you want specific cards for a deck and nothing else, buying singles will get you those cards that you want more economically.

[ununtrium]

Many thanks for going to all this trouble of putting these numbers together. Honestly, I believe that buying complete sets is the most economical way. Is there actually much trading happening anyway? I found it hard enough arranging trades 3-4 years ago.

Judging from the activity in the trading forum, activitiy seems to be down some. Players seem to prefer online play, so the need for physical cards for decks cannot be that high, either.

[HawkeyeSPF]

Excellent description of the methodology you used, thank you for the details!

[civ4master]

Results:
All values are USD

FotR: $52.24
MoM: $31.46
RotEL: $39.53
TT: $50.51
HD:34.54
EoF: $28.83
RotK: $48.78
SoG: $66.26
MD: $50.24

Ref: $49.86

Sh: $61.01 (excluding rf: $47.17)
BR: $85.58 (excluding rf and O: $55.88)
Bl: $165.48 (excluding rf and O: $106.16)

And there's a store near me that is selling an entire MD box for $36. Now I know I should go grab it!

[TheNinthPlayer]

And Black Rider suddenly is a great value buy online, 29$ last check!