I just finished playing this deck to an 8-2 record in Series 3 of the All Cards league. I made a couple changes:
FP: +1
Pathfinder [painless 41st card]
Shadow: +1
Isengard Warrior [I hate archery.]
+1
Moria Scout, -1
Goblin Warrior [expected more Elves than Dwarves, which I saw.]
+1
Relics of Moria, -1
Goblin Swarms [debatable. I don't think it made much difference, because it's tough to get Moria minions to win against decent decks.]
+1
Host of Thousands, -1
They Are Coming [I'd rather get the minion than pay 3 twilight and 3 cards. I didn't need to dump stuff too often.]
I saw many more Elves than Dwarves, so my
Goblin Warrior swap was appropriate. I only saw 1 Moria deck, so I didn't enjoy the
Song of Durin very much. They can't be played at site 1 in case of Uruks, because they make Gimli one-hittable. I know why they're there, but it's a meta call.
I won 2 games by running and 6 by shadow kill. Both my losses were to Last Alliance / Nazgul. They bid 3 or 4, started Sam and an Elf (1 Arwen, 1
Greenleaf; I think
Greenleaf is better), Ponied, and then played healing
Boromir, Defender of Minas Tirith with
Horn of Boromir. Elf allies support plenty of
Secret Sentinels. I would have had one of them at site 7 but they packed
Pathfinder. Also, their Tip/Breath Nazgul played the full set of
Morgul Gates. That's a nice deck, because against Uruks Sam gets killed early and they run with 4. The deck has to stop at 2 quite often, but the Ford threat will prevent most opponents from jumping through. After that, this deck isn't doubling through. Most decks won't, either. Going second against a
Green Dragon Inn bid I assume they would start Aragorn.
I made it through site 9 against Uruks, but the opponent was running
Uruk Ravager, not
Tower Assassin/Uruk Raider. And I didn't get hit by
Saruman's Power, which is just a mistake.
After playing 10 league games and a few casual games, I'd go back to 40/40. On Fellowship, I'd keep 1
Pathfinder and just 2
Song of Durin, but that's a meta call. On Shadow, I'd drop
Moria Scout #3 and run 3
Isengard Warrior because I dislike archery, but again it's a meta call, as is the number of
Goblin Warrior.
Goblin Scrabbler isn't too great either. On
Goblin Swarms vs
Relics of Moria, I don't know.
Is this deck Tier 1 or upper Tier 2? Unfortunately, I think I'd say the latter, even though jcb213 and I had very good records. There are ways to beat the Shadow, and the Fellowship can't double enough against Ally Hunter Uruks and sometimes Nazgul.