Erland, Advisor to Brand might hinder the shadow a little bit, but nothing devastating.
Yeah, I've debated whether or not to add Erland to my Expanded deck, but so far I don't quite feel the need. He IS in my Open deck, to counter Palantir of Orthanc.
And yes, any deck can be beaten IF the player knows exactly what to expect.
Eh... I would say there are basically two kinds of decks: The first, is a deck that relies upon some type of trick or gimmick, the element of surprise. Winning is dependent upon either your opponent not knowing what the trick is, or simply being unable to prepare to counter it. Another example of this type of deck, are those annoying
Little Snuffler decks that try to direct wound the Ringbearer by Site 3, and then turn to pudding after that if they fail.
The other kind of deck, is a deck that remains strong regardless of whether or not the opponent is aware of what it can do. I would put my own deck up as an example of that. I play the same thing almost all the time, the deck list is published, there is very little element of surprise against opponents who have played me on a regular basis. Heck, you yourself have demonstrated a familiarity with my deck!
A deck that is strong regardless of tricks or gimmicks.
Part of your strategy involves discarding a bunch of your Shadow cards into the discard pile. Your opponent has until Site 6 to look at those cards you're discarding and figure out... hmmm! This guy is setting up an Orc bomb! It's not like Orc Culture has much variety in strategies. Mostly it's just two kinds of bombs, one that uses
Demoralized, and one that uses
Warg Riders... with some corruption sprinkled in with the recycled event. The trickiest bit is the
Orkish Camp, but playing you has definitely trained me well as far as what to expect.
With Soldier's Cache you would only be able to exert Gondor companions, so there would be plenty of extra vitality open for Pittless Orc to take advantage of.
If it's an all-Gondor fellowship, that adds up to nobody. If it's me, I do have 5 non-Gondor companions in addition to my 4 Gondor guys, but if I really need to exert everybody, I can just play
Neekerbreekers' Bog a couple of times.
The win would mean holding both Traveled Leader AND Deep in Thought (providing there is enough twilight left in there, which I try to soak up) in hand the whole game.
Gladden Homestead can also do the trick, can be pulled with
Something Slimy, and need not sit in your hand. It won't permanently get rid of
Demoralized, but after the bomb goes off the first time all your guys are exhausted anyway, so
Demoralized isn't going to generate much after that. Another option is just making sure I play
Mount Doom when I move to Site 7, then use my siting event to make sure I never run into
Cavern Entrance. That's where I could see Erland coming in handy, as I do seem to recall you getting me pretty close to corruption with those events.
Soaking up the twilight? My experience playing against these is they end up with something like 100 twilight in the pool even after they've played all their guys, plenty for
Deep in Thought. And, of course, I run
The Faithful Stone, so leaving no twilight is not really a viable option.
As far as Balin Avenged, I have yet to encounter that card in expanded. But my guess is that it would significantly hurt this deck.
I'm surprised the Dwarf players don't use it!
I'm also curious as to how well your deck fairs against smaller choke fellowships (like Dwarfs). They don't have much vitality to begin with, and don't offer the extra twilight you get from 6+ companions. Does it still work?