Is the goal here to make a Frodo-Mithrandir deck with no other companions? I hate to say, I think I'm about to try and bring a lot of rain down on your parades haha. It's hard to make any two-companion deck work, much less one where a companion is actively trying to commit seppuku. There are things you can do to take the edge off of the weaknesses, but I think most TS matchups will be unfavorable for your FP. Consider that Eomer is base strength 11 and defender +1 with horse and spear -- and that there are plenty of Shadow sides capable of beating Rohan. I do think it's a neat idea as long as you're comfortable preforming around the bottom of second-string decks. The way I'd play such a deck would be to go second and aim for a shadow kill while also trying to goad my opponent into going after my FP. Maybe they'll think they can kill my Fellowship at 7 or 8 and -- if I can hold out -- open the door for my Shadow to instead kill them at 8 or 9.
JamesCB:
It's nice to have Gandalf at base strength 13, but the big issue here is that he caps out at 13 strength too. You'll be losing skirmishes to Nazgul with mounts, Uruk-hai with pumps, Dunlending with Saruman or a site, Southrons with mounts, Eaterlings with 2 burdens, almost any 2 minions skirmishing Gandalf at once... Basically, you're far from guaranteed a free kill every site. Plus,
Have Patience and
Intimidate are
expensive and using them before the Shadow phase puts you in a lot of danger. The Frodo stuff is nice because you'll actually be able to throw the biggest threats onto him and just let him take hits, but you've got to hold these things in your hand which will ruin your Shadow chances even if your FP do everything right. And since decks with few companions are rarely able to double-move gracefully, winning is going to be more up to lucky draws than anything else.
You need something for Gandalf when there are 3 minions on the board unless you want to take 2 wounds (plus 1 on Frodo) every site instead of 1.
Servant of the Secret Fire can replace some Hobbit events, probably some combination of
Severed His Bonds and
Swiftly and Softly. I think
Have Patience is just too expensive to justify period for a deck such as this, if you want to remove those instead.
Mithrandir and
King in Exile go together like Smeagol and Gollum, but if you really don't care for him then with some additional pumps (
Threw Down My Enemy is made for this deck: guaranteed -2 from
Shadowfax and Gandalf's Text and only getting better from there.
Mysterious Wizard is the other good option I think), you can rely on winning skirmishes and Sanctuary healing instead of preventing and healing wounds.
Still, I'd consider a copy of
Pippin, Hobbit of Some Intelligence to heal Gandalf and face down a Cave Troll for the old man, as well as going ahead and adding the fourth copy of
Mithrandir. Another neat little add-in could be
Smeagol, Poor Creature; you start him for almost-free, you get good cycling to get set up sooner, you handle 3 minions much more easily, and you get a timely corpse if a big fellah starts stomping around.
Elrond, Herald to Gil-Galad is a free heal every site, but you'd really need 4 copies of him so you can play him before site 3. If you don't mind it, that also opens the door to
Secret Sentinels for condition discard since Gandalf's usual toolkit could get you killed.
Gandalf's Wisdom is a direction to take this deck that would allow you to swap in
Old Bilbo's Heir, remove all 4
Severed His Bonds, and rely on
Bounder more; it would also make
Shadowfax and
Wizard Staff a lot safer.
No matter what, having one unbound companion in this format means Uruk Archery will tear you to bits.
Intimidate and all those extra
Mithrandir are gonna be your friends, but if you follow my advice and add some Gandalf pumps you might want to reconsider
Gandalf's Staff (makes
Intimidate a lot more reasonable if you have to use it when moving, too). And of course, splashing Pippin and not immediately sending him off to die will make that matchup a lot easier to bear.
ununtrium:
Most of my thoughts above apply here too.
Walking Stick is an interesting pick because it makes Gandalf effectively damage +4 at the cost of twilight reduction you desperately want from
Gandalf's Staff. Why do you need this? At 12 base strength you still need 2
Servant of the Secret Fire in hand to beat the 4 and 5 vitality minions you might fear (but I guess that's just as well since you'll probably need them to spot the 2 twilight). If you're sold on
Walking Stick, make way for Barliman Butterbar so it's a little more doable. I'm a big fan of
Depart Silently over
Hobbit Intuition since it'll tide you over in the fierce skirmishes.
Here's my take on your questions.
Sleep Caradhras is a lot more palatable with
Hard Choice to go with it. Generally the twilight cost is justified by whatever it removes, but with just two companions, both of whom are relying on getting events at the right time, an extra minion could be the end. One copy is always smart in case you run against grind or something, but it's going to be very situational whether you use it or discard it.
Roll of Thunder doesn't have that problem and can save you against a good handful of popular possessions on Towers Standard, namely mounts. But with the build you have right now, it seems you'd rather have a pump to just kill whoever is bearing the possession for cheaper anyway.
I don't know that there's ever a time or place for a
Merry, Impatient Hobbit engine. I say give it a shot, although I don't think there's a way to make it work haha. In the end I think you'll find it's too much deck space for not much in return.
Old Bilbo's Heir also has the Gandalf signet, if you wanted to swap 4x
Severed His Bonds for 2x
Bounder. But between Frodo's 6 vitality and 10 resistance, I don't see how preventing a wound or two actually matters. May as well just add
Mithril Coat.
Your Southron deck is best for another discussion, but I think you're probably right that other shadows are generally better. You have to rely on items and events for fierce or an extra wound in the skirmish, something other shadows get naturally. Southrons can be more fun though, because you can leave 3 twilight in the pool and dare your opponent to make risky assignments regardless of whether you have an event in hand. It's more of a mind game than the other cultures, where most of the danger is concealed in your hand instead of on the table. Since you might have cards you
could play but won't to save twilight, this strategy generally pairs better with a Free Peoples side that can draw extra the turn before or discard the turn after and keep things from getting clogged up. If you really want to keep these two strategies together then consider removing expensive, situational minions (you have a lot of guys costing 5 and more) for cheap cards such as
Strength in Numbers or
Southron Bowman. Again, it's all about making your opponent unsure of what you might have -- especially when you really have nothing at all.